Impact Bias

The tendency to overestimate how strongly and how long a future event will affect one’s feelings.

• Ex: A student expects that failing the driving test will ruin her month, and two days later she is studying for a retake and mostly fine.
• Ex: A man expects that a raise will make him happy for the rest of the year, and by the next month his mood is back to usual.
• Ex: A fan expects that losing the championship game will stay with her for weeks, and by the weekend she is planning next season.

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Last updated: October 5, 2026 at 5:27 PM